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Coronavirus

22/03/2020

So we have Coronavirus in the UK.  How bad is it really?

Currently the virus is spreading at 30% per day
Mortality is 3%

In countries which do test, death to recovery ratio is 3.5%- 4%. This is also the figure given by the WHO. Our testing is not in this league due to lack of government leadership and long running inadequate NHS funding.
BUT our death to recovery rate will be the same.

Today we have had 335 deaths.
We must also have had around 8000 recoveries although the government figures only indicate 135.  The vast majority have had mild symptoms and are probably unaware they have has the virus.

To get this many deaths we must have had just over 8000 cases some time ago. The WHO suggest a 14 day period from infection to death. So we wad over 8000 cases 14 days ago.  We had recorded 278.

It is spreading at 30% so that 8000 cases has now risen to between 400 and 500 thousand. Most people won't realise they have it.

If it continues to spread at this rate we will had had over 100,000 deaths by 12th of April, and over a million by the 20th of April.

These are deaths due to the virus.  Typically 30% of the serious cases recover with care.  The NHS will not be able to provide this care so an extra 300,000 will die by 20th April.

The Governments Plan
The government was never in a position to stop the virus due to the reasons mentioned previously.  The plan is to slow the spread so that the NHS has a better chance of coping.  Highly vulnerable people are to isolate.
After a period of time almost people will have had the virus and recovered and hopefully be non-infectious. Then the vulnerable people can come out of isolation.

Is this a good plan??  Actually it has some advantages.  Unlike South Korea or China we will have a herd immunity are be unlikely to suffer from it again.
The disadvantage is that tens or even hundreds of thousands will die.
But in the present situation, after years of running down the NHS, it is the best possible plan.

Update 23/02/2020
The government has tonight finally issued major constriction shutting shops parks and forbidding gatherings of more than two people.  This should have been done before now.
We have accepted for a long time that we were 14 days behind Italy. Italy locked down when deaths reached 433.  We will probably reach that tomorrow.
Deaths today in Italy are 6077. We will probably reach that figure in 14 days time.


The key lesson  to those most vulnerable is to VERY STRICTLY SELF ISOLATE until the worst is over and the NHS will be able to take care of you or until a vaccine is available.

So we have Coronavirus in the UK.  How bad is it really?    REALLY BAD.

 


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