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Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus

How far is England Behind?

19/07/2020

Currently 215 countries are listed in Worldometer.  As regards "highest deaths per million of population" the UK ranks number 4.  If we broke the home nations down, England goes to number 3 The other UK nations are still in the top 20.

Of those above England, are tiny San Marino who has had only 1 death since April 26th, and Belgium. Belgium's current death rate per million is about a quarter of England's. 

So since the beginning if the virus, the UK in general and England in particular are clearly in the  top rank of worlds worst performers.

BUT most of this is historical, being due to the delay in taking action at the very beginning of the pandemic. The article looks at how England is performing now.

At the beginning of the lockdown the UK was 11 days behind Italy and Spain. Measuring the death rate per million of population per week,  the UK peaked at  107 on 13th April, while Italy and Spain peaked on 2nd April at 74 and 57 respectively

Now the UK is at 7.8 deaths per million, per week, a huge improvement.
England is at about 10, while the other nations of the UK are under 2

However Italy passed England's  figure on 30th May , and Spain on 3rd May. England is now 7 weeks behind Italy and 11 weeks behind Spain.

 Time Frame:- First lock down till first easing

CovidAt the peak of the virus, England was recording 107 deaths per million of population. Scotland and Wales were around 80, and Northern Ireland was around was 58.

By the time of the England's first lock down easing on 11th May,  England was showing 53 deaths per million of population.  Wales and Northern Ireland had come down to this figure almost two weeks earlier, but Scotland was behind by about a week.

Time Frame:- First easing to second easings

covidBy 1st June, on England's second lock down easing, England was at 29 deaths per million of population. Wales and Northern Ireland were now 2-3 weeks ahead, and Scotland was a few days ahead.

Time Frame:- Second easing to third easing

covidBut by the latest lockdown easing on 4th July, England death rate was down to 12.  Wales had passed this 3 weeks earlier, Scotland 4 weeks earlier, and Northern Ireland 6 weeks earlier.

Time Frame:- Third easing to present.

covidCurrently, in terms of death rate per head of population, The other three nations are ahead of England by 3-7 weeks.
 

In actual numbers, over the last 7 days, England has had 467 deaths, Scotland has had 1, Ireland 2 and Wales 5 
The other nations are not easing the lockdown as fast as England, so although the death rate continues to drop in England, it is obvious that the lockdown easing is slowing the curtailment of the epidemic..

This slowing down of the can be seen in the death rate reduction figures. England's death rates are only dropping at about 1.3% per day. This is perilously close to 0 which would mean an R rate greater than 1 and infection and death rate increasing

As the other three nations passed England's current death rate, of 10 per million of population per week their death rates were dropping at around 8% per day.

Conclusions
England's current death rate is better than the USA, and the hot spot countries like Brazil, but it is worse than the European countries, even including Russia.

England and the USA may never catch up with these other countries. Our death rates are going down slower than theirs and we are further behind. England is in the company of many "third world" nations who will be reliant on a vaccine to eliminate the virus.

 The Future
The recovery in England is going to be slow and long, and relationships with the other UK nations will suffer. 
The strategies are fundamentally different:-

England is trying to control it until a vaccine appears.

Scotland, Northern Ireland (and the republic of Ireland), and maybe Wales are trying to eliminate the epidemic. This is probably impossible while there is free traffic between the four nations and virtually unrestricted travel from other countries.
 
There will be a call for border controls.

This government has proved itself incapable of dealing with a pandemic, which bodes ill for any future pandemics or a mutation of this one, or the situation if a vaccine fails to materialise.


Meanwhile,  in the USA

Trump RallyThe doubling in Arizona's daily death rate 2 weeks after Trump's rallies in Phoenix and Tucson doesn't really need any more comments.

Arizona
From Worldometers

Covid 19 small 

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