Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus
Exiting Lockdown Part 1
03/5/2020
Business Secretary Alok Sharma set out five key tests, he
said
- “We must protect the NHS' ability to cope.
We must be confident we are able to provide sufficient critical
care and specialist treatment right across the UK."
We may have met this criteria already as far as covid19 is concerned,
but when we put back in all of the other things that have been
postponed the position is not so clear.
Due to the governments lack of spending, the NHS was already
beyond maximum capacity before the virus (as seen by waiting
times). We have more capacity now due to the Nightingale
centres, and more staff due to those re-entering the profession
but will the government continue to fund this capacity?
- “We need to see a sustained and consistent
fall in the daily death rate from coronavirus so we can be confident
we have moved beyond the peak."
What is a sustained and consistent fall?
Sustained for how long? One week? Six months?
How consistent? Over few days? A few months?
How great a fall? 0.01%? 50%?
Not exactly a SMART goal (Specific,
Measurable, Attainable,
Relevant, Trackable)
It's measurable, certainly relevant, and easily trackable, but
with no specific goal, the attainability cannot be estimated.
- Reliable data from SAGE showing the rate of
infection is decreasing to manageable levels across the board.
So we need the information to determine 2. above - obviously.
- “We need to be confident that the range of operational
challenges including testing capacity and PPE are in hand with
supply able to meet future demand."
This is very critical, and is the
main area of government failure so far.
- “We need to be confident that any adjustments
to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections
that overwhelm the NHS."
Hopefully this confidence will be achieved by watching and learning
from the successes and failures in other countries, instead
of the "suck it and see" approach used at the beginning of the
epidemic.
The government makes announcements every day. They are
usually saying how hard they are working and congratulating themselves
on doing a great job, while assuring the public that failure areas
(currently care homes) which should have been addressed weeks ago
are now top priority.
IF we can get a sustained growth rate of 95% which
will be good achievement, and the government could
be congratulated on this, then the death rate should be down to
below 10 a day by late July, and the total death toll be then will
be between 40,000 and 45,000.
By ignoring events in other countries, the government has made
this epidemic tens or hundreds of times worse than it should have
been. Now will they watch other countries as they start the
lockdown exit process?
We can get some idea of the still lay back approach
of the government by
Grant Shapps announcement that the tracking app will be available
in a few weeks! A few weeks appears to
mean the end of the month - so around four weeks.
Australia's is in operation NOW.
When should the lock down end really?
If say, 1 in 10,000 people have the virus then most people would
not worry too much about catching it. The population of
the UK is about 66 million, so the implies 6600 people are
infected. Mortality is about 1.3% so that implies the
death rate would be around 85 per day.
In addition death rate must be reducing and most of those with
the virus identified..
If we can achieve a 95% growth, this will happen by mid July.
Italy is beginning to exit the lockdown now. They are averaging
2600 deaths per week (Or about 370 per day. Growth is about 96%.
14 days ago they must have had around 28,000 new infections.
At 96% growth, new cases today will be around 16,000. The number
of new cases reported is 1,389. This indicates lack of
testing and tracking. So around 15,000 people or one in 4000
inhabitants have the virus, probably without knowing.
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Covid Articles
15/01/2021
There is light
11/01/20211
A new year begins
02/01/2020
A good thing?
31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers
21/12/2020
A worrying Trend
13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers
30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown
16/11/2020
Mid lock down
26/10/2020
October
8/10/2020
Long Covid
28/9/2020
September3
0/8/2020
August roundup
10/08/2020
Englands data
31/07/2020
July roundup
29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II
20/07/2020
How far are we behind
12/07/2020
It progresses
04/07/2020
The flood gates open
27/06/2020
State of the Nations
21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1
4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#
07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment
05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation
5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation
24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.
17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany
10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries
7/05/2020
Tracking
7/05/2020
Clarification
03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1
01/05/2020
Statistics
01/04/2020
First Thoughts |