Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus
Coronavirus Tracking,
07/06/2020
Care homes
The government stopped publishing figures "by the old method"
which was deaths in hospitals on May31st. I was able to
subtract that figure from total deaths to get deaths in care
homes. It was never too accurate in the short term as
sometimes this resulted in negative deaths in care homes! But in
the long term it gave a good indication.
When the data stopped deaths in care homes were running at 711
per week, and the trend was for this to reduce by around 2% per
day (See graph 3)
Graph 11 shows the care home daily death rate up until 31st May
The U.K.
The UK data is now shown by separating out the four nations.
Graph 1 shows the deaths per week (7 day rolling average) taking into account the
population for the last couple of weeks. There is a steady
decline for England and Scotland but Wales' reduction seems to
have stalled.
As the actual numbers get smaller, these rate of change graphs
vary wildly. Hence the very choppy appearance of graph showing
Northern Ireland where numbers are down to a few a day.
The disease is still spreading in the community with almost as
many people catching the disease as those that recover or die.
Restrictions have been loosened as of 1st June and any changes
in the death rates will not be apparent until mid June. At
the same time demonstrations are taking place in the USA and the
UK over racial equality and this will exacerbate the spread. It
will also make it impossible to point to any reason for a change
in infection rates.
The test and trace system is not working according to the folk
employed in it, but it is going fine according to the
government. As expected the phone app will be delayed and
may be out by September. This will make it more difficult
to find the disease carriers in the hot spots. There does
not seem to be any strategy for dealing with localised hot spots
either.
Other Places
Spain's data is not listed as it is not
reliable - see the problem
here.
The USA seems to have stalled, with the number of deaths
remaining steady.
Germany and Italy are improving at the same rate of about 5% per
day, but Germany is about 4 weeks ahead.
England (and therefore the UK as it dominates) is improving
at about 3.5% per day which puts us 5-6 weeks behind Italy.
Of course all of this relies upon the data being fairly
accurate.

|
Covid Articles
15/01/2021
There is light
11/01/20211
A new year begins
02/01/2020
A good thing?
31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers
21/12/2020
A worrying Trend
13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers
30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown
16/11/2020
Mid lock down
26/10/2020
October
8/10/2020
Long Covid
28/9/2020
September3
0/8/2020
August roundup
10/08/2020
Englands data
31/07/2020
July roundup
29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II
20/07/2020
How far are we behind
12/07/2020
It progresses
04/07/2020
The flood gates open
27/06/2020
State of the Nations
21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1
4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#
07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment
05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation
5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation
24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.
17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany
10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries
7/05/2020
Tracking
7/05/2020
Clarification
03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1
01/05/2020
Statistics
01/04/2020
First Thoughts |