Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus
Data Manipulation. Spain.
28/07/2020
Travellers now returning from Spain have to quarantine. So
how bad is the situation in Spain?
As mentioned in the
previous article on this matter, the figures are suspect,
but now they are even more unbelievable. Currently the
number of cases seem to be rising out of control - yet the
number of deaths is a consistently low value. Of course
the deaths are bound to lag behind infections, usually by about
14 days.
14 days ago, Spain was recording an average of 594 new
infections per day. Now we think that the
mortality rate is around 1.4% so we would expect around 8
deaths per day. Spain is recording only 1 death per day.
This would indicate that Spain's mortality figure is only
around 0.2% - way better than anywhere else.
OR there are many misdiagnoses and cases of
seasonal flu or similar are being mistaken for covid 19.
OR the deaths are being misreported.
Currently Spain is recording 1992 new cases per day - under
normal mortality figures we should see a death rate of 25-35 per
day in 2 weeks time.
But relying on infections is always problematic as it depends on
the number of tests and the efficacy of the track and trace
system. With a country with an excellent testing regime, for
example New Zealand, their deaths to cases ratio is 1.4%
In a country with a poor testing system, the deaths per cases
ratio greater. For example in England we are averaging 64 deaths
per day and recording about 630 infections per day. But given
the accepted mortality figure of 1.4%, infection rates must be
around 4500 per day. We only find 14% of the total.
Despite all of the government's assurances that the track and
trace is working, this figure has only improved marginally since
the peak of the virus.
Summary
Spain's situation is getting worse. The number of reported cases
has climbed rapidly since borders were opened to tourists at the
beginning of July.
England (not the U.K.*) has, and had, a worse incidence of the
virus than Spain had when the borders opened, and in all
probability the rise in cases in Spain originated from English
Tourists.
* I separate England out from the other home nations as the
other nations have far lower incidences of the virus.
Northern Ireland - last death 15 days ago
Scotland
- last death 11 days ago
Wales
- 3 deaths in last 9 days
England
- 454 deaths per week
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