Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus

Data Manipulation.  Spain.

28/07/2020

Travellers now returning from Spain have to quarantine.  So how bad is the situation in Spain?

As mentioned in the previous article on this matter, the figures are suspect, but now they are even more unbelievable.  Currently the number of cases seem to be rising out of control - yet the number of deaths is a consistently low value.  Of course the deaths are bound to lag behind infections, usually by about 14 days.

14 days ago, Spain was recording an average of 594 new infections per day.  Now we think that the mortality rate is around 1.4% so we would expect around 8 deaths per day. Spain is recording only 1 death per day.  This would indicate that Spain's mortality  figure is only around 0.2% - way better than anywhere else.

OR there are many misdiagnoses and cases of seasonal flu or similar are being mistaken for covid 19.

OR the deaths are being misreported.

Currently Spain is recording 1992 new cases per day - under normal mortality figures we should see a death rate of 25-35 per day in 2 weeks time. 

But relying on infections is always problematic as it depends on the number of tests and the efficacy of the track and trace system. With a country with an excellent testing regime, for example New Zealand, their deaths to cases ratio is 1.4%

In a country with a poor testing system, the deaths per cases ratio greater. For example in England we are averaging 64 deaths per day and recording about 630 infections per day. But given the accepted mortality figure of 1.4%, infection rates must be around 4500 per day.  We only find 14% of the total. 

Despite all of the government's assurances that the track and trace is working, this figure has only improved marginally since the peak of the virus.

Summary
Spain's situation is getting worse. The number of reported cases has climbed rapidly since borders were opened to tourists at the beginning of July.
England (not the U.K.*) has, and had, a worse incidence of the virus than Spain had when the borders opened, and in all probability the rise in cases in Spain originated from English Tourists.

* I separate England out from the other home nations as the other nations have far lower incidences of the virus.
Northern Ireland -  last death 15 days ago
Scotland            -  last death 11 days ago
Wales                - 3 deaths in last 9 days
England             - 454 deaths per week