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Corona Virus

A series of write ups on the virus

Ending Lockdown

30/11/2020

From two weeks ago
Deaths continue to increase following the increases in cases 2-3 weeks ago. they should level out soon at around 500 per day. The most optimistic outlook is that the deaths start decreasing NOW.  But, even with the much stricter condition in the first lock down the reductions were only about 4% per day.

Deaths have indeed reached around 500 per day (actually 486). But they have not leveled out. They are still rising. 

We can see in the graph below the number of cases increasing in September as the schools and the universities opened.  But the cases were mostly among the younger folk and overall mortality was around 1%.  During October the virus spread through the population reaching the old and vulnerable. and overall mortality began to rise.  It now sits a 2%. 

Death and Mortality

The Universities are still open and students will be going home for Christmas.  At the same time lockdown restrictions will be loosened. We will see more of the older generation catching the virus at family gatherings.

The figures

eol cases

Nation Cases peaked
(week ending)
Deaths peaked
(week ending)
Case to deaths delay
UK 15th Nov Not yet more than 2 weeks
England 15th Nov Not yet more than 2 weeks
Northern Ireland 18th Oct 22nd Nov 5 weeks
Scotland 25th Oct (1st peak) 15th Nov 3 weeks
Wales 01 Nov (1st peak) 15th Nov 2 weeks
France 8th Nov 22nd Nov 2 weeks
Italy 15th Nov Not yet more than 2 weeks
Germany 22nd Nov Not yet more than 1 week
USA The Thanksgiving day Holiday is distorting the figures after 26th November
Cases and deaths have probably not peaked yet.

So England, and therefore the UK, will probably be very close to the peak now and we should be starting to see a reduction in deaths over the next week.
The deaths reduced at a rate of 5% per day during the first lockdown.  The new Tier system is unlikely to better that, so maybe 4% may be possible. That would mean that deaths could be under 150 per day (1400 a week) by Christmas. That equates to 15 per million of population per week on the above graph.

Update 7 Dec
After the blip due to Thanksgiving the latest USA data shows that the new cases have not peaked yet although the rate has slowed and the peak may occur in the next week or two.  Deaths continue to climb and we will probably not see a reduction until January.
In England, deaths peaked on 28th November, and have dropped by 8% so far or about 1% per day. 10 days before the peak in deaths, cases were dropping at 4% per day so hopefully the decline in death rates will accelerate over the next few weeks.

Covid Articles

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September3

0/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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