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Corona Virus

A series of write ups on the virus

Good News and Bad

25/01/2021

The Good 
The number of new cases in the UK continue to fall, and yesterday saw the first (very small) fall in the 7 day death rate.
Vaccine roll out is accelerating with over 9% of the population of the UK having had their first jab.
Travel into the UK is now much stricter.

The Bad
The actual death rate for England is still very high (141 per million per week) but worryingly Portugal now has the highest death rate in the world (157) and their new cases are still rising. This is probably the new Brazil variant which has been causing concern.

The Worse
In a previous post I recorded how mortality appears to be increasing.  Here is an update on the figures.

New Deaths this week / New cases two weeks ago

Using this formula:-

The accepted mortality rate for the virus is around 1.2%. The overall increase could be due to:-

  1. More people dying as the hospitals are swamped,
  2. Less people presenting to be tested for the virus,
  3. New strains of the virus are more lethal,

or a combination of all of the above.
3. would be the worst case, especially as the new stragins are more contagious

The Data

cases
We can see that the number of new cases has been dropping since week ending 10th January in the UK and Ireland following the Christmas spike.  Portugal's new cases are still climbing and showing no sign of plateauing yet.

deaths
The Christmas spikes in new cases, has led inevitably to a spike in deaths 2-3 weeks later.  Hopefully this is the UK's peak. Portugal's death rate can be expected to rise still further over the next three weeks - at least.

We have to hope that the government can keep the Brazil variant out of the UK while the NHS roll the vaccine out AND that the current vaccine works against it. 


Covid Articles

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September3

0/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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