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Corona Virus

A series of write ups on the virus

Observations on apparent mortality

29/03/2021

Definition
My measure of mortality is the number of new deaths this week divided by the number of new cases18 days ago.  It could be defined in lots of ways but this measure is as good as any.
The graph below shows how the mortality has changed since September last year.

Mortality

We can see how mortality got significantly worse during the third wave, rising to over 3%.  Some of this was probably due to the new strain if the virus being more lethal, and some would be due to the overloading of the NHS.
In February the mortality leveled out at about 2.2% which is probably the level for this strain.
Towards the end of February mortality began to drop. This was probably due to the effect of the vaccinations. Around 20% of the population were vaccinated by the first week in February and this would be having an effect after around 3 weeks.

BUT (there is always a but)
It is interesting to look at this measure in other countries.
Here is a comparison of the Scandanavian countries

  Mortality Current new Deaths/million Current new Cases/million
UK 1.04% 6.4 535
France 1.55% 35 4023
Germany 2.07% 14.4 1403
Italy 2.1% 49.52 2578
Iceland 0% 0 192
Norway 0.2% 1.47 1192
Finland 0.25% 2.16 786
Denmark 0.34% 2.41 432
Sweden 0.51% 13.8 3523

Why should some countries have a better Mortality rate.  Is it because they have a less lethal version of the virus?  More likely is simply that they are getting a bigger percentage of people being diagnosed with the virus. This could be due to :-

This becomes more interesting when we look at the graphs.  Here is a graph showing the growth in new cases over the last eight weeks

New cases

We can see that the UK is improving, and seems to be doing better than Norway, Finland, and far better than Sweden.
But when we look at the death rate:-

Deaths

We are considerably worse than Norway, Finland, and Denmark, and only a little better than Sweden.  France, Germany, Italy, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Sweden all have similar vaccinations ratios, but the apparent mortality rate is much worse in Europe than Scandanavia. (Israel has vaccinated virtually it's entire population but deaths are still worse than most of Scandanavia or even the UK.)
Why? Is it false positives? Or is it the population taking the situation more seriously, and getting tested? This may well be the case and maybe that is happening in th UK too.

Meanwhile in the UK
New Cases have levelled out at around 400-700 per million of population. This may be due to that small percentage of the population who are ignoring the guidelines. But, hopefully it is due to the increased use of lateral testing. The graph blow shows how the number of tests conducted has doubled in March.

Virus tests conducted

UK cases

New deaths continue to drop at around 30% per week, probably due to the Vaccine.

UK Deaths

UK Restriction are being relaxed over the next few weeks.  Cases will almost certainly go up, the question is how much.

Vaccinations are doing incredibly well, but supplies will be constrained over the next few weeks

UK Vaccinations

Around 45% of the UK have had their first dose. But the comparison between Israel and Scandanavia above indicates that the vaccines are not the 100% solution.


Covid Articles

08/05/2021
Green Countries

19/04/2021
Wave number 3

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September

20/9/2020
A second wave

30/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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