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Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus


State of the Nations

28/6/2020

England is coming out of lockdown and will be followed by Scotland, Ireland and Wales. Here is a comparison of how the four nations are performing and I have added in some other countries too.

Corona deaths UK and others

The number of deaths per head of population since the pandemic started shows that while England has had the most, the other countries are not far behind (with the exception of Germany)
BUT when we look at the current death rate, taking population into account, a different picture emerges.

 Last weeks covid stata

All of the other nations, with the exception of the USA are leading England and by quite a margin. 
When we look at the trends, the situation is much worse for England.

Note:- Spain has modified the way it reports data, and these very low figures are very suspect.  It may be desperation to get the tourists back.

Covid trend

So England not only has the worst death rate, but it is actually getting even worse.  In other words, the R0 figure is greater than 1. BUT this is the death rate, so the R0 figure for infections must have been over 1 around two weeks ago.

I believe the government's strategy is to open up the economy while keeping the virus at a constant level (R0=1) until a vaccine is found. 
Local lockdowns will be used to attempt to keep the virus under control.

 Update 30/6/2020
Local lock downs have started with Leicester. Boris Johnson is calling this the "whack-a-mole strategy".

Whether this will work and whether other countries will be happy to go along with us remains to be seen.

It's a numbers game. 134 deaths per day at 1.4% mortality means almost 10,000 infections per day.  Mean incubation period is around 6 days, so 60,000 people will have the virus without knowing. That is about 1 person in every thousand, or 1 every 5 full plane loads.
This is when they get on the plane: but when they get off? How many have they infected.
Some will catch the virus on the way out, and pass it on on the way back.
Some will start to get symptoms abroad causing local lockdowns.

Will other countries accept this?
It is interesting that Portugal are annoyed that they are not on the UK's "approved countries" . Their current death rate per million population is under 3 (but it is rising)  Ours is 16!
Spain's current published death rate is very low, but around 11th May when they were in a similar state to Italy they stopped reporting any meaningful date, and when they started again the data showed they were now leading Europe!


Covid 19 small 
Covid Articles

08/05/2021
Green Countries

19/04/2021
Wave number 3

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September

20/9/2020
A second wave

30/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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