Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus
A Perfect Storm
04/07/2020
A significant number of people in England still
have the virus. Death rates are about 100 per day so
infections 14 days ago must have been around 7000 per day.
People typically take 5 days before they feel
sick so 35000 people are spreading the virus. As long as
they pass it on to 35000 people or less the incidents and
deaths will decrease.
35000 people is less than 1 in 1000 people in
the UK. This does not sound too bad but tens or hundreds
of thousand of people are about to head of in enclosed planes or
cruise ships and mingling in hotels. The virus will spread and
many more people will come back with the virus but without
symptoms. The government has decreed there will be no need
to self isolate on return.
At the same time pubs and restaurants are
opening which will give rise to a greater spread.
The city of Leicester is already in local
lockdown, more local lockdowns are expected.
As regards the UK in comparison to other
countries, the following graph shows how we are doing. I have
added Portugal on as the UK classes Portugal as not safe.
As the UK has a death rate about 3 times higher than Portugal
(although Portugal's seems to be growing) I would have thought
that they have more to fear from the UK than vice versa.

Scotland's and Northern Ireland's figures are
so low that one or two extra deaths in a week can have a big
difference on the statistics. But it is obvious that both of
these countries are handling the situation far better than
England.
Apparently a huge majority (73%) of Scots would
support
border controls.
With Scotland's death rate under 10% of England's, this seems a
good idea to me.
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