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Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus

A Perfect Storm

04/07/2020

A significant number of people in England still have the virus.  Death rates are about 100 per day so infections 14 days ago must have been around 7000 per day.

People typically take 5 days before they feel sick so 35000 people are spreading the virus.  As long as they pass it on to 35000 people or less the incidents and deaths will decrease.

35000 people is less than 1 in 1000 people in the UK.  This does not sound too bad but tens or hundreds of thousand of people are about to head of in enclosed planes or cruise ships and mingling in hotels. The virus will spread and many more people will come back with the virus but without symptoms.  The government has decreed there will be no need to self isolate on return.

At the same time pubs and restaurants are opening which will give rise to a greater spread.  

The city of Leicester is already in local lockdown, more local lockdowns are expected.

As regards the UK in comparison to other countries, the following graph shows how we are doing. I have added Portugal on as the UK classes Portugal  as not safe. As the UK has a death rate about 3 times higher than Portugal (although Portugal's seems to be growing) I would have thought that they have more to fear from the UK than vice versa.

Covid 4 July

Scotland's and Northern Ireland's figures are so low that one or two extra deaths in a week can have a big difference on the statistics. But it is obvious that both of these countries are handling the situation far better than England.

Apparently a huge majority (73%) of Scots would support border controls. 
With Scotland's death rate under 10% of England's, this seems a good idea to me.


Covid 19 small 
Covid Articles

08/05/2021
Green Countries

19/04/2021
Wave number 3

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September

20/9/2020
A second wave

30/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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