Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus

A Perfect Storm

04/07/2020

A significant number of people in England still have the virus.  Death rates are about 100 per day so infections 14 days ago must have been around 7000 per day.

People typically take 5 days before they feel sick so 35000 people are spreading the virus.  As long as they pass it on to 35000 people or less the incidents and deaths will decrease.

35000 people is less than 1 in 1000 people in the UK.  This does not sound too bad but tens or hundreds of thousand of people are about to head of in enclosed planes or cruise ships and mingling in hotels. The virus will spread and many more people will come back with the virus but without symptoms.  The government has decreed there will be no need to self isolate on return.

At the same time pubs and restaurants are opening which will give rise to a greater spread.  

The city of Leicester is already in local lockdown, more local lockdowns are expected.

As regards the UK in comparison to other countries, the following graph shows how we are doing. I have added Portugal on as the UK classes Portugal  as not safe. As the UK has a death rate about 3 times higher than Portugal (although Portugal's seems to be growing) I would have thought that they have more to fear from the UK than vice versa.

Scotland's and Northern Ireland's figures are so low that one or two extra deaths in a week can have a big difference on the statistics. But it is obvious that both of these countries are handling the situation far better than England.

Apparently a huge majority (73%) of Scots would support border controls. 
With Scotland's death rate under 10% of England's, this seems a good idea to me.