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Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus


Coronavirus Tracking

10/05/2020

We are generally following a few weeks behind Spain and Italy. Spain's growth rate is better than ours, Italy's is worse, but both are further on than us in the number of deaths. At current growth rates we should be close their present level around the end of May. Both are beginning to ease lockdown
The government are keen to point out that the comparative daily statistics do not take into account the population size. It's not a hard calculation.
So far, deaths per million population are:-
USA: 242.
France: 403
UK: 465
Italy: 503
Spain: 566

Spain
From 11 May, customers can order a beer in a terrace bar but bars and restaurants will not fully reopen until 10 June, adhering to strict social distancing guidelines and only at 50% capacity 
Churches and mosques will be allowed to reopen from 11 May, but only at partial capacity. (from the BBC)

Italy
In early May, some restrictions were relaxed and people are now able to travel for longer distances, as well as visit their relatives in small numbers. Visits to other regions of the country are still banned. (from the BBC)

USA
Different states have different rules. In New York State which has the highest number of cases growth rate is about 95% and deaths are around 1600 per week. Source

New York State
Travel outside home:
 Only for essential needs/work.
Individuals age 70 and older and those with compromised immune systems must stay home and limit home-visitation to immediate family members or close friends.
Gatherings: Nonessential gatherings are prohibited.
Businesses: Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work. (Guidance) Quarantines: No mandatory quarantine for out-of-state travelers.
Mandatory quarantines for people who have been in close contact with a Covid-19 patient. Bars/restaurants: Dine-out only.
Beaches/parks: Social distancing at state parks.
Nonessential businesses will stay closed through May 15th.
All K-12 schools and college facilities statewide will remain closed and continue to provide distance learning, meal delivery and childcare services for the remainder of the school year.
Governor Cuomo issued executive orders 202.17 and 202.18 requiring all people in New York to wear masks or face coverings in public, including when taking public or private transportation or riding in for-hire vehicles.

The U.K.
Carehome death rate is very volatile and may be falling. This may be because hospitals can now accept some carehome patients.
Boris Johnson is making a much anticipated announcement this evening.

Update - Boris Johnsons announcement
Folk can (probably must if they want to get paid) now go to work if they can't work at home. Try to avoid public transport.

He did not mention the use of masks on public transport.

Employers should arrange social distancing and/or provide PPE

From Wednesday folk can go out more including by car but social isolating can be maintained.

A traffic light system to be used on a regional basis to track local hot spots and take action as neccessary.  It will measure the "R value" but the calculation used and the actual numerical value, as usual are not mentioned.

This is probably the best way out of the lockdown but will create problems at the borders of hot spots. As Scotland, Wales, and N.I. are not following England, we will have border problesm almost immediately. 

He specificaly said people could still be fined for breaking the rules,  but it is not obvious what the rules are.

I live in Cornwall, we have a low incidence of the virus. But we are now expecting hoardes of tourists flooding in from London - the major hotspot.

10th May Stats


Covid 19 small 
Covid Articles

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September3

0/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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