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Corona Virus
A series of write ups on the virus


Coronavirus Tracking,

07/06/2020

Care homes

The government stopped publishing figures "by the old method" which was deaths in hospitals on May31st.  I was able to subtract that figure from total deaths to get deaths in care homes.  It was never too accurate in the short term as sometimes this resulted in negative deaths in care homes! But in the long term it gave a good indication.

When the data stopped deaths in care homes were running at 711 per week, and the trend was for this to reduce by around 2% per day (See graph 3)

Graph 11 shows the care home daily death rate up until 31st May

The U.K.

The UK data is now shown by separating out the four nations. Graph 1 shows the  deaths per week (7 day rolling average) taking into account the population for the last couple of weeks. There is a steady decline for England and Scotland but Wales' reduction seems to have stalled.

As the actual numbers get smaller, these rate of change graphs vary wildly. Hence the very choppy appearance of graph showing Northern Ireland where numbers are down to a few a day.

The disease is still spreading in the community with almost as many people catching the disease as those that recover or die.

Restrictions have been loosened as of 1st June and any changes in the death rates will not be apparent until mid June.  At the same time demonstrations are taking place in the USA and the UK over racial equality and this will exacerbate the spread. It will also make it impossible to point to any reason for a change in infection rates.

The test and trace system is not working according to the folk employed in it, but it is going fine according to the government.  As expected the phone app will be delayed and may be out by September.  This will make it more difficult to find the disease carriers in the hot spots.  There does not seem to be any strategy for dealing with localised hot spots either.

Other Places

Spain's data is not listed as it is not reliable  - see the problem here.

The USA seems to have stalled, with the number of deaths remaining steady.

Germany and Italy are improving at the same rate of about 5% per day, but Germany is about 4 weeks ahead.

England (and therefore the UK as it dominates) is improving at about 3.5% per day which puts us 5-6 weeks behind Italy.

Of course all of this relies upon the data being fairly accurate.

covid stats 7th June

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Covid 19 small 
Covid Articles

29/03/2021
Mortality

15/03/2021
Are we doing well now?

22/02/2021
Are we doing well?

1/02/2021
R is for Rubbish

30/01/2021
UK Lockdowns

27/01/2021
Dithering

24/01/2021
Good News and Bad

17/01/2021
Worst in Class

15/01/2021
There is light

11/01/2021
A new year begins

02/01/2021
A good thing?

31/12/2020
The Year ends in Tiers

21/12/2020
A worrying Trend

13/12/2020
Two weeks of Tiers

30/11/2020
Ending Lockdown

16/11/2020
Mid lock down

26/10/2020
October

8/10/2020
Long Covid

28/9/2020
September3

0/8/2020
August roundup

10/08/2020
Englands data

31/07/2020
July roundup

29/07/2020
Spain Data Manipulation II

20/07/2020
How far are we behind

12/07/2020
It progresses

04/07/2020
The flood gates open  

27/06/2020
State of the Nations

21/06/2020
Exit and Testing1

4/06/2020
Hindsight and Foresight#

07/06/2020
Tracking and general comment

05/06/2020
Spain Data Manipulation

5/06/2020
UK Data Manipulation

24/05/2020
Tracking, school opening and care homes.

17/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with Germany

10/05/2020
Tracking and comparison with other countries

7/05/2020
Tracking

7/05/2020
Clarification

03/5/2020
Exiting Part 1

01/05/2020
Statistics

01/04/2020
First Thoughts

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